Overwhelming cloudbursts and flooding similar to those that struck Sauk County communities and southern Wisconsin in June could be more frequent as global warming trends continue, a climate researcher told county officials Monday.

Steve Vavrus of the Center for Climate Research at the University of Wisconsin-Madison spoke before the Intercounty Coordinating Committee as the group met in Baraboo. The audience included emergency management leaders, government officials and interested citizens from Sauk, Columbia, Dodge, Green Lake and Jefferson counties.

Vavrus said when he compares the amount of rainfall at the Madison airport from the early 1940s to now, the annual precipitation amount is up by about 10 percent. More importantly, the number of extreme rain storms, such as rainfall of 2 or 3 inches or more, have been increasing.

Extreme storms in which several inches of rain fall in a short time creates floods such as those the area experienced this summer, he said.

"For the real whoppers, 3 inches or more of rainfall in a day, we're at the point of equaling all the previous decades combined," Vavrus said of this decade.

Almost all climate scientists now expect the average temperatures of the Earth to increase in coming decades due to rising carbon dioxide and other global warming gases in the air, he said. Higher temperatures mean more moisture evaporates from bodies of water, and more moisture in the air will mean more rainfall in Wisconsin and the Great Lakes area.

Former state Assemblywoman Sheryl Albers of Reedsburg challenged Vavrus, saying scientists don't all agree the Earth is warming.

"I would argue the scientists do agree on it," Vavrus said. "They don't agree on the details, the basic notion that there will be global warming, 90 to 95 percent of the scientists will agree with."

Vavrus presented his audience with what he called a caveat.

When different climate projection models are compared, there is substantial agreement in the projections Wisconsin will get more total rain and snow in winter and spring, he said. However, there is less agreement whether summer precipitation will rise or fall.

"That's really unfortunate, because that's when agriculture cares about it most," he said.

Vavrus said the think tank he works with, the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change impacts, has created working groups to discuss the possible results of climate change and how to protect the state and its people. They work on practical issues such as managing storm water and human health concerns.

"(They look at) not just how much will be rainfall in the future, but what the impacts will be," he said. "The idea is this information will be used by government officials, emergency managers and business."

Emergency management directors from the counties reported on their ongoing efforts to recover from the June flooding.

People continue to need help in Sauk County, said Jeff Jelinek, county emergency management director. Recently, a group of trained church volunteers visited several homes to clean out mold and another group helped put a trailer home back on its foundation, he said.

About 30 to 40 Sauk County residents have requested some sort of post-flooding recovery help, and others continue to call, Jelinek said. He has four case workers who are trying to find the money and personnel to do things like mold cleanup for people who can't pay professionals themselves.

The total damage to residences in Sauk County is about $35 million, he told the News Republic after the meeting. A preliminary estimate of flood damage done to the farm economy is $40 million, but that can change depending on results of the harvest.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency is still working on damage estimates for municipal government infrastructure such as roads.

"A lot," he said. "I estimate right now, between $15 (million) and $20 million at least."

Albers wanted to know whether the Federal Emergency Management Agency would be providing help for efforts to clear trees from a 17-mile section of the Baraboo River. During the flooding it overflowed and closed sections of the nearby Interstate 39 and State Highway 33 for a time.

Local farmers whose land drains into the river don't have the $1.5 million it would take to make sure the river can flow freely, she said.

Columbia County Emergency Management Director Patrick Beghin said he doesn't think federal funding is likely, even though the river can threaten the interstate.

"It's pretty apparent from the perspective I saw that FEMA is not going to be paying for a clean out of that," Beghin said. "The maintenance has not been done over time, and FEMA looks at that. So they're not going to be paying for that."

The Wisconsin Department of Transportation also is not interested in cleaning up the Baraboo River, he said.

"They're going to have to make some structural changes to the interstate system there to make them flood-proof for a 100-year event, which they are not at this time," Beghin said.

Jelinek said he is less concerned about statistics and projections such as Vavrus presented than just trying to make sure Sauk County agencies and communities are ready when severe storms and flooding do occur. It all points to the need for preparedness, he said.

"We deal with this when it happens," Jelinek said. "We have to take it seriously."

Jelinek invited people who need help recovering from the June flooding to call his office at (608) 355-3200.